SPY · SPDR S&P 500 ETF · launched 1993 · 0.0945% ER

SPY calculator: what SPDR's S&P 500 ETF grows into

SPY was the first US-listed ETF (January 1993). It tracks the S&P 500 total return index and remains the most-traded ETF in the world by volume. This calculator applies year-by-year total return math using data back to 1928 — for scenarios before SPY existed, results represent the underlying index (which SPY tracks with minimal deviation).

By Snowballr Research Team

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Your what-if

Amount invested at start of year

Start year1993

19282025

You would have

$285K

by end of 2025 — from $10K invested at start of 1993

In 1993 dollars (real, after inflation)$124K

Annualized nominal return10.69%

Annualized real return7.93%

Years held33

Cumulative inflation×2.30

Uses annual S&P 500 total return (with dividends reinvested) and CPI-U inflation, 1928–2025. Source: Damodaran (NYU Stern) + Shiller CAPE + BLS. Excludes fees, taxes, and bid/ask. Real return = nominal ÷ cumulative CPI.

SPY's 0.0945% expense ratio (versus VOO/IVV at 0.03%) reflects its role as the primary institutional / options-trading vehicle rather than the low-cost retail wrapper. For pure buy-and-hold, VOO is cheaper. But SPY has the deepest options market, tightest bid-ask, and the largest daily trading volume — matters if you're actively managing or writing calls.

Since SPY's January 1993 inception through end of 2025, the stored underlying-index scenario compounds at approximately 10.7% annualized before ETF fees and taxes. Notable episodes include the 1995-1999 melt-up, the 2000-2002 dot-com bust, the 2008 GFC and the 2020 COVID crash; the calculator keeps historical observations separate from forecasts.

A quirk: SPY holds cash briefly before quarterly dividend payout ("dividend drag"), which VOO does not. Over 30 years this costs SPY holders ~0.05-0.10% per year on top of the expense ratio. Not enough to matter for most, but a real consideration in tax-advantaged accounts for very-long-horizon investors.

Frequently asked

What is SPY's historical annualized return?

The stored underlying-index scenario from 1993 through 2025 compounds at approximately 10.7% nominal annualized before ETF fees and taxes. It is historical index math, not a sourced SPY NAV or a forecast; verify fund distributions, costs and taxes separately.

SPY vs VOO — which is better for a long-term investor?

VOO wins on cost (0.03% vs 0.0945% expense ratio; over 30 years the gap compounds to about 2% of final balance). SPY wins on options market depth and secondary-market liquidity. For pure buy-and-hold in a tax-advantaged account: pick VOO. For options traders or those who value maximum liquidity: SPY.

Does SPY pay dividends?

Yes, quarterly. Yield in 2026 is approximately 1.3%. The calculator's default assumes automatic reinvestment (DRIP), which most brokerages support at no cost.

How much would $10,000 invested in SPY at inception (January 1993) be worth today?

A $10,000 start-of-1993 scenario using the stored S&P 500 total-return series reaches approximately $285,311 nominal and $124,248 in 1993 purchasing power through 2025. The result excludes ETF fees, taxes and tracking difference; it is not a historical SPY NAV quote.

What was SPY's worst year?

2008: -36.55% (nominal total return). Recovery to new highs took roughly 5 years. Second-worst: 2002 at -21.97%. Third: 2022 at -18.04%. Every single one was followed by a positive next year.

Related tools

S&P 500 calculator

Underlying index — no ETF wrapper fee.

VOO calculator

Vanguard's cheaper alternative (0.03%).

S&P 500 historical returns

Time machine for any start year 1928+.

S&P 500 DCA calculator

Monthly contribution scenarios.

Historical scenarios hub

Great Depression, dot-com, GFC, COVID.

Returns by decade

How each decade performed.

Historical returns are not indicative of future results. Excludes broker/ETF fees, taxes, and bid-ask spread. Data: Damodaran (NYU Stern), Shiller CAPE, BLS CPI-U. See our sources, editorial standards, and disclaimer.