Historical data · Updated August 2026
S&P 500 returns by decade
Annualized total returns (nominal and inflation-adjusted) for the S&P 500 since 1930. Includes dividend reinvestment. Source: the NYU Stern School of Business average annual returns dataset (Aswath Damodaran) and Robert Shiller's Yale data — the standard references for average annual real returns of the S&P 500.
Short answer
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has returned ~10.0% nominal / ~6.9% real annually with dividends reinvested. But decade variation is huge: the 1950s and 1980s both topped 17% nominal, while the 2000s lost money. The longer your horizon, the closer your experience converges to the average.
Annualized returns by decade
| Decade | Nominal (annual) | Real (annual) | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1930s | -1.0% | 1.0% | Great Depression, deflation kept real returns barely positive |
| 1940s | 9.0% | 3.0% | WWII + postwar boom; inflation eroded ~60% of nominal gain |
| 1950s | 19.5% | 16.7% | Strongest decade ever, low inflation, postwar industrial expansion |
| 1960s | 7.7% | 5.2% | Slow grind, Vietnam, late-decade inflation pickup |
| 1970s | 5.9% | -1.4% | Stagflation: nominal positive, real NEGATIVE for the whole decade |
| 1980s | 17.6% | 12.5% | Volcker disinflation + tax cuts; second-best decade |
| 1990s | 18.2% | 14.8% | Tech-driven bull market, low inflation, peak P/E ratios by 1999 |
| 2000s | -0.9% | -3.4% | The "lost decade" — dot-com crash + 2008 GFC ate all gains |
| 2010s | 13.6% | 11.4% | QE-fueled recovery, longest bull market in US history |
| 2020s (through 2025) | 13.1% | 8.6% | COVID crash + recovery + post-2022 inflation; tech-heavy |
Long-horizon averages
| Period | Nominal annualized | Real annualized |
|---|---|---|
| 1928–2025 (full) | 10.0% | 6.9% |
| 1950–2025 (75 yr) | 11.5% | 7.4% |
| 1975–2025 (50 yr) | 12.1% | 8.0% |
| 2000–2025 (25 yr) | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| 2015–2025 (10 yr) | 13.1% | 9.1% |
Three takeaways
- Decades vary enormously. The 1950s returned 19.5%/yr; the 2000s returned -0.9%/yr. Picking your retirement date matters more than picking your fund.
- Real returns are what you spend. The 1970s averaged 5.9% nominal — and lost 1.4%/yr after inflation. Always plan in real dollars.
- Time smooths everything. Over rolling 30-year windows, real returns have ranged 4–9% — much tighter than the decade-level spread.
Run your own projection
Apply any of these historical rates to your portfolio with the S&P 500 calculator or compound investment calculator. For inflation-adjusted projections, use the inflation calculator.
Sources & methodology
- NYU Stern — Aswath Damodaran historical returns
- Yale — Robert Shiller's S&P 500 dataset
- BLS — CPI-U for inflation deflation
- All returns are total-return (price + dividends reinvested). Real returns deflated with CPI-U. Geometric mean of annual returns within each decade.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the S&P 500 average annual return?
From 1928 to 2025, the S&P 500 has returned approximately 10.0% nominal and 6.9% real (after inflation) on an annualized basis, with dividends reinvested. The decade-to-decade variation is large — the 1950s returned 19.5% nominal while the 2000s lost 0.9%.
What was the S&P 500's worst decade?
The 2000s — the 'lost decade.' The dot-com crash (2000–2002, ~-49%) and the Global Financial Crisis (2008, ~-37%) combined to produce a negative -0.9% nominal annual return for the entire decade. Real returns were -3.4%/year.
What was the S&P 500's best decade?
The 1950s, with 19.5% nominal and 16.7% real annual returns. Low inflation plus postwar industrial expansion drove this. The 1990s (18.2% nominal, 14.8% real) is a close second.
Should I use 10% as my long-term S&P 500 return assumption?
10% nominal is the historical average since 1928 and works well for very long horizons (40+ years). For 20–30 year projections most planners use 7% real (inflation-adjusted) to add safety margin. Some researchers (Vanguard, Damodaran) currently project 5–7% nominal over the next 10 years due to elevated valuations.
How is the S&P 500 real return calculated?
Real return = nominal return − inflation rate. Inflation is measured using CPI-U (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, BLS). For a decade-level series, the geometric mean of annual real returns gives the annualized real return.
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