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S&P 500 calculator
Project investment growth at the S&P 500's long-term historical return. Dividend-reinvested total return, 10% nominal / 7% after inflation. Free, no sign-up.
S&P 500 historical returns
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged about 10% nominal total return (price + dividends reinvested) — roughly 7% after inflation. The path is far from smooth; the average masks 30%+ down years and 30%+ up years.
- 1928–2025: ~10.0% nominal, ~6.9% real
- 1965–2025 (60 years): ~10.5% nominal
- 2000–2025 (lost decade + recovery): ~7.2% nominal
- 2015–2025: ~13.1% nominal (above average)
Use 10% for nominal long-term projections, 7% for real (inflation-adjusted) planning, and 5–6% for a deliberately conservative case.
Dollar-cost averaging into the S&P 500
| Monthly | 10 yrs (10%) | 20 yrs | 30 yrs | 40 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | $41k | $151k | $452k | $1.26M |
| $500 | $102k | $378k | $1.13M | $3.16M |
| $1,000 | $204k | $757k | $2.26M | $6.32M |
| $2,000 | $408k | $1.51M | $4.52M | $12.6M |
Cheapest S&P 500 funds in 2026
- FXAIX (Fidelity 500 Index) — 0.015% expense ratio
- SWPPX (Schwab S&P 500 Index) — 0.02%
- VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) — 0.03%
- IVV (iShares Core S&P 500) — 0.03%
- SPY (SPDR S&P 500) — 0.0945%
S&P 500 Calculator FAQ
What return should I use for S&P 500 projections?
Use 10% for nominal historical average, 7% for inflation-adjusted real return, or 5–6% for a conservative case that accounts for elevated valuations. Most financial planners use 7% real for long-term planning.
Does the S&P 500 calculator include dividends?
Yes — the 10% historical return is total return with dividends reinvested. The price-only return is about 7% historically; dividends add roughly 3 percentage points. Real-world S&P 500 index funds auto-reinvest dividends.
How long until $10,000 in the S&P 500 doubles?
At 10% historical return, doubling time is about 7.2 years (Rule of 72). At 7% real return, about 10.3 years. Starting at $10k: $20k in 7 years, $40k in 14, $80k in 21, $160k in 28, $320k in 35.
Has the S&P 500 ever lost money over 20 years?
Looking at rolling 20-year periods since 1928, the S&P 500 has never had a negative real return — the worst 20-year stretch was the Great Depression starting period at roughly 0.4% real annualized. 30-year periods are uniformly positive.
S&P 500 vs total stock market — does it matter?
Tiny difference. S&P 500 (500 largest US companies) and total US stock market (~4,000 stocks) have nearly identical returns historically because the S&P 500 makes up ~80% of US market cap. Either is fine; total market is technically more diversified.
Is the S&P 500 a good investment in 2026?
Long-term yes — there's no broad evidence that future returns will differ much from historical averages, though valuations matter. Short-term nobody knows. Dollar-cost average through ups and downs and the math takes care of you over 20+ years.