What's the FIRE number for retire at 60 with traditional fire math?

FIRE number = annual expenses × (100 / SWR). For $70,000/year expenses at 4% SWR: $70,000 × 25.0 = $1,750,000.

How many years to reach this FIRE number?

Starting with $200,000 and saving $2,000/month at 7% real return, you reach $1,750,000 in 20 years — at age 60. Total contributed: $680,000; growth: $1,070,000.

What savings rate does this require?

$24,000/year saved out of an implied $94,000 income = 26% savings rate. At this rate, FIRE in ~20 years aligns with Mr. Money Mustache's famous "shockingly simple math" — savings rate is the single biggest lever, more than income or rate of return.

What if my real return is different?

Bump to 8% real and FIRE comes ~2-3 years sooner. Drop to 5% and it takes 3-5 years longer. Real (after-inflation) returns matter more than nominal. The S&P 500 long-run real return is ~7%; use this for retirement planning unless you want to inflate your target.

FIRE scenario · Verified 2026-05-27

Retire at 60 with traditional FIRE math

FIRE number: $1,750,000 ($70,000/year × 25.0). At 7% real return saving $2,000/month from $200,000, you reach it in 20 years — age 60. Savings rate: 26%.

FIRE number

$1,750,000

Years to FIRE

FIRE age

Savings rate

26%

Run your own variations

The calculator below is pre-filled with this scenario's numbers — drag any input to see how it shifts your FIRE timeline.

How this number was calculated

FIRE number  = Annual expenses × (100 / SWR)
             = $70,000 × 25.0
             = $1,750,000

Years to FIRE: solve   bal × (1 + r) + annual_contrib = FIRE
  starting bal = $200,000
  annual_contrib = $24,000
  r (real return) = 0.07
  → 20 years

Total contributed  = $680,000
From growth        = $1,070,000  (61% of FIRE number)

Math grounded in the Trinity Study (Cooley et al., 1998) and Karsten Jeske's SWR Series.

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→ FIRE $1,250,000 in 15 years (age 45)

Retire at 50 starting at age 30

→ FIRE $1,250,000 in 19 years (age 49)

Retire at 55 with $60K/year expenses

→ FIRE $1,500,000 in 20 years (age 55)

Retire at 40 — only 10 years away from age 30

→ FIRE $1,000,000 in 10 years (age 40)

Run any FIRE scenario

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Educational projection. Future returns are not guaranteed. Sequence-of-returns risk matters for early retirees — see Karsten Jeske's SWR Series for nuanced analysis. Verified 2026-05-27.