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FIRE scenario · Verified 2026-05-27

Retire at 50 starting at age 30

FIRE number: $1,250,000 ($50,000/year × 25.0). At 7% real return saving $2,500/month from $50,000, you reach it in 19 years — age 49. Savings rate: 38%.

FIRE number
$1,250,000
Years to FIRE
19
FIRE age
49
Savings rate
38%

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Frequently asked questions

What's the FIRE number for retire at 50 starting at age 30?

FIRE number = annual expenses × (100 / SWR). For $50,000/year expenses at 4% SWR: $50,000 × 25.0 = $1,250,000.

How many years to reach this FIRE number?

Starting with $50,000 and saving $2,500/month at 7% real return, you reach $1,250,000 in 19 years at age 49. Total contributed in the simulation: $620,000; growth: $682,195.

What savings rate does this require?

$30,000/year saved out of an implied $80,000 income = 38% savings rate. This is an arithmetic scenario; the result changes with income, expenses, contributions, taxes, fees and return assumptions.

What if my real return is different?

Keeping this scenario's balance, expenses, contributions and 4% SWR fixed, a 5% real-return sensitivity reaches the target in 22 years; an 8% sensitivity reaches it in 18 years. These are constant-return illustrations, not forecasts.

How this number was calculated

FIRE number  = Annual expenses × (100 / SWR)
             = $50,000 × 25.0
             = $1,250,000

Years to FIRE: solve   bal × (1 + r) + annual_contrib = FIRE
  starting bal = $50,000
  annual_contrib = $30,000
  r (real return) = 0.07
  → 19 years (age 49)

Total contributed  = $620,000
From growth        = $682,195  (55% of FIRE number)

Math grounded in the Trinity Study (Cooley et al., 1998) and Karsten Jeske's SWR Series.

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Educational projection. Future returns are not guaranteed. Sequence-of-returns risk matters for early retirees — see Karsten Jeske's SWR Series for nuanced analysis. Verified 2026-05-27.