If you invested $100,000 in the S&P 500 in 2002

How this was computed

We take the S&P 500 total return series (price change plus dividends reinvested at year-end) from start of 2002 through end of 2024 — a 23-year window — and apply the actual year-by-year return to a starting balance of $100,000. The nominal figure of $779,929 reflects the market value in 2024 dollars. The real figure of $440,273 strips out cumulative CPI-U inflation over the same window, expressing the end value in terms of 2002 purchasing power.

Total multiplier: 7.80× nominal (real: 4.40×). Cumulative CPI-U inflation over the window: 1.77× — meaning one 2002 dollar buys 0.56 2024 dollars of goods.

What this scenario captures

Every rolling multi-decade window contains its own crisis and recovery. The 23-year window starting 2002 includes the market events of that era — bull runs, drawdowns, monetary regime changes, and inflation cycles — all baked into the compounded number. Long-run S&P 500 real return since 1928 has averaged roughly 6.9%; the 6.66% realized in this specific window trailed that average.

What the calculation excludes

• ETF or mutual fund expense ratios (VOO 0.03%, SPY 0.09%, IVV 0.03%)
• Taxes on dividends (typically 15-20% qualified rate) — inside a Roth IRA or taxable-account brokerage account with reinvested dividends the drag matters
• Bid/ask spread and transaction costs
• Behavioral realities — real investors rarely hold through the worst drawdowns without selling

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This page precomputes the S&P 500 outcome for $100,000 starting in 2002. For a custom scenario, use our interactive tool:

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