If you invested $100 in the S&P 500 in 1948
$100 invested in the S&P 500 at the start of 1948 — with dividends reinvested and held through end of 2024 — would be worth $450,845 nominal, or $32,021 in 1948 purchasing power. That's 11.55% annualized nominal return, or 7.78% real return, over 77 years.
How this was computed
We take the S&P 500 total return series (price change plus dividends reinvested at year-end) from start of 1948 through end of 2024 — a 77-year window — and apply the actual year-by-year return to a starting balance of $100. The nominal figure of $450,845 reflects the market value in 2024 dollars. The real figure of $32,021 strips out cumulative CPI-U inflation over the same window, expressing the end value in terms of 1948 purchasing power.
Total multiplier: 4508.45× nominal (real: 320.21×). Cumulative CPI-U inflation over the window: 14.08× — meaning one 1948 dollar buys 0.07 2024 dollars of goods.
What this scenario captures
Every rolling multi-decade window contains its own crisis and recovery. The 77-year window starting 1948 includes the market events of that era — bull runs, drawdowns, monetary regime changes, and inflation cycles — all baked into the compounded number. Long-run S&P 500 real return since 1928 has averaged roughly 6.9%; the 7.78% realized in this specific window exceeded that average.
What the calculation excludes
- ETF or mutual fund expense ratios (VOO 0.03%, SPY 0.09%, IVV 0.03%)
- Taxes on dividends (typically 15-20% qualified rate) — inside a Roth IRA or taxable-account brokerage account with reinvested dividends the drag matters
- Bid/ask spread and transaction costs
- Behavioral realities — real investors rarely hold through the worst drawdowns without selling
Try a different scenario
This page precomputes the S&P 500 outcome for $100 starting in 1948. For a custom scenario, use our interactive tool:
Historical returns are not indicative of future results. Data: Damodaran (NYU Stern), Shiller CAPE, BLS CPI-U. See our sources, editorial standards, and disclaimer.