What's the FIRE number for save 30% — realistic mid-aggressive path?

FIRE number = annual expenses × (100 / SWR). For $50,000/year expenses at 4% SWR: $50,000 × 25.0 = $1,250,000.

How many years to reach this FIRE number?

Starting with $75,000 and saving $1,786/month at 7% real return, you reach $1,250,000 in 21 years — at age 51. Total contributed: $525,072; growth: $724,928.

What savings rate does this require?

$21,432/year saved out of an implied $71,432 income = 30% savings rate. At this rate, FIRE in ~21 years aligns with Mr. Money Mustache's famous "shockingly simple math" — savings rate is the single biggest lever, more than income or rate of return.

What if my real return is different?

Bump to 8% real and FIRE comes ~2-3 years sooner. Drop to 5% and it takes 3-5 years longer. Real (after-inflation) returns matter more than nominal. The S&P 500 long-run real return is ~7%; use this for retirement planning unless you want to inflate your target.

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FIRE scenario · Verified 2026-05-27

Save 30% — realistic mid-aggressive path

FIRE number: $1,250,000 ($50,000/year × 25.0). At 7% real return saving $1,786/month from $75,000, you reach it in 21 years — age 51. Savings rate: 30%.

FIRE number

$1,250,000

Years to FIRE

FIRE age

Savings rate

30%

Run your own variations

The calculator below is pre-filled with this scenario's numbers — drag any input to see how it shifts your FIRE timeline.

How this number was calculated

FIRE number  = Annual expenses × (100 / SWR)
             = $50,000 × 25.0
             = $1,250,000

Years to FIRE: solve   bal × (1 + r) + annual_contrib = FIRE
  starting bal = $75,000
  annual_contrib = $21,432
  r (real return) = 0.07
  → 21 years

Total contributed  = $525,072
From growth        = $724,928  (58% of FIRE number)

Math grounded in the Trinity Study (Cooley et al., 1998) and Karsten Jeske's SWR Series.

Related FIRE scenarios

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→ FIRE $1,000,000 in 15 years (age 43)

Save 70% of income — Mr. Money Mustache style

→ FIRE $750,000 in 9 years (age 34)

Run any FIRE scenario

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Educational projection. Future returns are not guaranteed. Sequence-of-returns risk matters for early retirees — see Karsten Jeske's SWR Series for nuanced analysis. Verified 2026-05-27.