Snowballr · Cheat sheet
Retirement & 4% rule cheat sheet
The 25× rule, the 4% withdrawal, and how to size your number.
For: Pre-retirees and FIRE pursuers · Source: snowballr.io/cheat-sheets/retirement-4-percent-rule
Core numbers
- 25× annual spending = the number you need to retire
- 4% of your number = sustainable annual withdrawal
- Bengen (1994) → 4.0% with 50/50 stocks/bonds, 30-year horizon
- Trinity (1998) → confirmed 4% has ~95% success over 30 years
Sizing your number
| Annual spend | 25× nest egg | 4% withdraw |
|---|---|---|
| $40,000 | $1.0 M | $40,000 |
| $60,000 | $1.5 M | $60,000 |
| $80,000 | $2.0 M | $80,000 |
| $100,000 | $2.5 M | $100,000 |
| $150,000 | $3.75 M | $150,000 |
FIRE variants
- Lean FIRE — $25K–$40K/year spending, $625K–$1M nest egg
- Regular FIRE — 25× annual spend, retire fully
- Fat FIRE — $100K+/year spending, $2.5M+
- Coast FIRE — invest enough early; let it grow to traditional retirement
- Barista FIRE — partial work covers spend, investments grow untouched
Sequence-of-returns risk
A bad market in years 1–5 of retirement permanently damages a 30-year plan more than a bad market in years 25–30. Two defenses: hold 2 years cash + bonds buffer, OR reduce withdrawal in down years (3% guardrail).
Decision rules
- For 40+ year horizons (early retirement), use 3.25–3.5% instead of 4%.
- Add a 1-year cash buffer to avoid selling in down markets.
- Re-test annually with current portfolio vs current spending × 25.
- Health insurance is the #1 unknown — budget conservatively.