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Safe withdrawal rate calculator
The Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) sets the % of your portfolio you can spend each year without running out. Compare 3%, 3.5%, 4%, and 5% across 30/40/50-year horizons.
Historical SWR success by horizon
| SWR | 30 yrs | 40 yrs | 50 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | 100% | 100% | ~98% |
| 3.5% | ~99% | ~95% | ~90% |
| 4.0% | ~95% | ~87% | ~78% |
| 4.5% | ~83% | ~70% | ~58% |
| 5.0% | ~70% | ~55% | ~42% |
From Bengen and Trinity Study extensions. 75/25 stock/bond, inflation-adjusted withdrawal.
Picking your SWR by retirement age
- Retire at 65 (30-year horizon): 4% is the historical baseline
- Retire at 55 (40-year horizon): 3.5–3.75%
- Retire at 45 (50-year horizon): 3.25–3.5%
- Retire at 35 (60-year horizon): 3.0–3.25%
Flexible vs fixed SWR
Fixed SWR locks the inflation-adjusted dollar amount year after year. Flexible SWR (Guyton-Klinger guardrails) starts at 4.5–5% but cuts spending if portfolio drops 20%+ below the original path. Trades a small probability of running out for a much higher initial spending level.
Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator FAQ
Is the 4% rule the same as Safe Withdrawal Rate?
The 4% rule is one specific SWR. SWR more broadly refers to any rate of withdrawal that has high historical success — could be 3%, 3.5%, 4%, or higher with flexibility rules. The 4% rule comes from Bengen's 1994 paper and Trinity Study confirmation.
What SWR should I use?
Match to retirement length. 30-year horizon: 4%. 40-year: 3.5–3.75%. 50-year: 3.25–3.5%. 60+ year (very early FIRE): 3% or use a variable-percentage withdrawal strategy. Conservative planners shave another 0.25% for safety margin.
Does SWR account for taxes?
SWR is the gross withdrawal — you withdraw the 4% from your portfolio, then taxes come out. A $1M portfolio at 4% gives $40,000 gross; if half is in a Traditional 401(k) at 22% marginal, your net is roughly $35,600. Plan accordingly.
What's the difference between SWR and required minimum distribution (RMD)?
SWR is a planning rule you choose. RMD is an IRS rule on Traditional retirement accounts starting at age 73 — based on age + life expectancy, typically 3.7–6.5% depending on age. RMD doesn't care about your SWR plan; it forces withdrawals.
Can I have a variable SWR that adjusts to the market?
Yes — several strategies: (1) Guyton-Klinger guardrails (cut spending 10% if portfolio drops below a threshold); (2) Vanguard Dynamic Spending (annual rate × current balance); (3) constant percentage (always 4% of current balance, never inflation-adjusted). All raise sustainable initial withdrawal at cost of variability.
Should I withdraw monthly, quarterly, or annually?
Either way works. Monthly: simpler for cash flow. Annual: less trading, slightly higher returns from staying invested longer. Most retirees withdraw monthly from a cash bucket they refill quarterly from the portfolio.