{
  "@context": "https://schema.org",
  "@type": "Dataset",
  "name": "Snowballr FIRE Index 2026 — State-Level Composite",
  "description": "Original composite index measuring how favorable each US state is for pursuing Financial Independence / Retire Early, computed from real income surplus, state tax burden, and market entry valuation. Curated and published by Snowballr.",
  "version": "2026.1",
  "datePublished": "2026-06-08",
  "dateModified": "2026-06-08",
  "publisher": { "name": "Snowballr", "url": "https://snowballr.io" },
  "creator": { "name": "Snowballr Research Team", "url": "https://snowballr.io/editorial-standards" },
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "citation": "Snowballr (2026). Snowballr FIRE Index 2026, State-Level Composite. https://snowballr.io/research/snowballr-fire-index-2026",
  "methodology": {
    "summary": "Composite 0-100 score per state. Higher = more favorable for starting a FIRE pursuit in 2026. Three equally-weighted components, each normalized 0-100.",
    "components": [
      {
        "name": "Real Income Surplus (RIS)",
        "formula": "(median household income / regional price parity * 100) normalized to 0-100 across all states",
        "primarySource": "US Census Bureau ACS 2024 (median household income), BEA Regional Price Parities 2023"
      },
      {
        "name": "State Tax Burden Inverse (STBI)",
        "formula": "100 minus effective state + local tax burden % on median household; higher = lower tax, more favorable",
        "primarySource": "Tax Foundation State-Local Tax Burden Rankings (latest release)"
      },
      {
        "name": "Market Entry Climate (MEC)",
        "formula": "shared national score based on inverse of Shiller CAPE quartile at evaluation date; CAPE 35 → MEC 30",
        "primarySource": "Robert Shiller CAPE dataset (Yale Department of Economics)"
      }
    ],
    "compositeFormula": "FIRE Index = (RIS + STBI + MEC) / 3",
    "evaluationDate": "2026-06",
    "evaluationCAPE": 35,
    "marketEntryClimate2026": 30,
    "caveats": [
      "Index represents starting conditions, not portfolio outcomes — a high index still requires a high personal savings rate to convert into FI.",
      "Cost of living within a state varies dramatically by metro area (e.g., NYC vs upstate NY). Index uses statewide RPP.",
      "Property tax is included only via the Tax Foundation state-local rollup; rates vary widely by county.",
      "Forward-looking real returns are uncertain — the MEC component models entry, not destination."
    ]
  },
  "data": [
    { "state": "Tennessee", "stateCode": "TN", "RIS": 78, "STBI": 92, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 66.7, "rank": 1, "notes": "No earned income tax; moderate COL; income approaches national median." },
    { "state": "Florida", "stateCode": "FL", "RIS": 71, "STBI": 90, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 63.7, "rank": 2, "notes": "No state income tax; rising COL especially Miami/Tampa erodes surplus vs early-2020s." },
    { "state": "Texas", "stateCode": "TX", "RIS": 74, "STBI": 84, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 62.7, "rank": 3, "notes": "No income tax but elevated property tax; strong incomes in TX Triangle metros." },
    { "state": "Washington", "stateCode": "WA", "RIS": 80, "STBI": 78, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 62.7, "rank": 3, "notes": "High incomes (tech corridor); no income tax; high COL in Seattle metro." },
    { "state": "South Dakota", "stateCode": "SD", "RIS": 67, "STBI": 95, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 64.0, "rank": 5, "notes": "No income tax; low COL; modest absolute incomes." },
    { "state": "North Carolina", "stateCode": "NC", "RIS": 70, "STBI": 78, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 59.3, "rank": 8, "notes": "Flat-tax state; growing tech presence (RDU); favorable for relocation." },
    { "state": "Pennsylvania", "stateCode": "PA", "RIS": 71, "STBI": 75, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 58.7, "rank": 10, "notes": "Flat 3.07% state income tax; moderate COL; Philadelphia/Pittsburgh wage differentials." },
    { "state": "Colorado", "stateCode": "CO", "RIS": 74, "STBI": 70, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 58.0, "rank": 14, "notes": "Strong incomes; rapidly rising Denver/Front Range COL eroding surplus." },
    { "state": "Ohio", "stateCode": "OH", "RIS": 65, "STBI": 76, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 57.0, "rank": 19, "notes": "Low COL but income lagging; moderate municipal taxes." },
    { "state": "Massachusetts", "stateCode": "MA", "RIS": 88, "STBI": 60, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 59.3, "rank": 8, "notes": "Highest incomes; flat state tax; very high COL (Boston) compresses real surplus." },
    { "state": "Maryland", "stateCode": "MD", "RIS": 82, "STBI": 65, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 59.0, "rank": 12, "notes": "Highest median household income; moderate state tax; high suburban-DC COL." },
    { "state": "Illinois", "stateCode": "IL", "RIS": 70, "STBI": 60, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 53.3, "rank": 35, "notes": "High overall tax burden; income concentrated Chicago metro; weakening surplus." },
    { "state": "California", "stateCode": "CA", "RIS": 65, "STBI": 50, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 48.3, "rank": 45, "notes": "Among highest incomes but highest top-bracket tax AND highest COL; surplus thin for non-tech households." },
    { "state": "Hawaii", "stateCode": "HI", "RIS": 45, "STBI": 55, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 43.3, "rank": 49, "notes": "Highest COL nationally; moderate-high tax; quality-of-life premium." },
    { "state": "New York", "stateCode": "NY", "RIS": 62, "STBI": 52, "MEC": 30, "fireIndex": 48.0, "rank": 46, "notes": "Strong NYC-metro incomes but highest state-local tax burden; high COL." }
  ],
  "summaryFindings": {
    "top5StatesForStartingFIRE2026": ["Tennessee", "South Dakota", "Florida", "Texas (tied)", "Washington (tied)"],
    "bottom5StatesForStartingFIRE2026": ["Hawaii", "New York", "California", "Illinois", "Connecticut (not shown)"],
    "headlineInsight": "Income-tax-free states with moderate COL dominate the top. Highest-income states (MA, MD) score mid-pack because high tax + high COL absorb the income advantage. Market Entry Climate at CAPE 35 is a uniform headwind — every state's start in 2026 is at a historically expensive valuation.",
    "marketEntryNote": "The MEC component (30/100 in 2026) reflects that CAPE 35 historically precedes below-average 10-year real returns (Shiller, multiple decades). Savers can offset by raising savings rate above the typical 25% baseline."
  }
}